Iranian Business Management Association International Journal of Resistive Economics 2345-4954 14 3 2026 07 01 Impacts of Drought on Food Security of Strategic Crops in Iran: A Machine Learning–Based Scenario Analysis 64 84 245600 10.22034/oajre.2026.576145.1193 EN Foad Eshghi Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran. 0000-0002-5763-1917 Tahereh Ranjbar Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. 0009-0006-8905-0355 Nemat Allah Nemati Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. 0009-0001-4878-8787 Hafezeh Hoseini Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. Masoud Sharifi Khatir Master of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran. Journal Article 2026 02 16 Drought-driven hydroclimatic stress is increasingly disrupting agricultural supply in arid and semi-arid environments. This study quantifies future supply vulnerability for three major cereal crops in Iran, namely wheat, rice, and barley, using a multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) time-series framework. Annual data for 1961–2023 were compiled from international databases and include crop production, imports, harvested area, and precipitation as a climate proxy. The modelling workflow proceeds in two steps: (i) domestic production is projected for 2024–2028 using crop-specific multivariate LSTM models; and (ii) the forecasts are translated into implied import requirements. In this study, implied import requirement is a gap-based accounting indicator, calculated as the non-negative difference between the calibrated baseline domestic requirement and forecasted production, rather than a direct machine-learning forecast of import volumes. To stress-test vulnerability, three drought shock scenarios, including 10%, 30%, and 50% production reductions, are applied to the baseline production pathway, and scenario-specific import gaps are recomputed. The results show that drought shocks substantially increase external supply exposure across all crops. Under the severe 50% shock scenario, average implied import requirements during 2024–2028 increase by 172.6% for wheat, 137.1% for rice, and 65.4% for barley compared with the baseline pathway. In aggregate, the three-crop import gap rises by 135.7%, indicating a sharp increase in food-security vulnerability under severe drought stress. Methodologically, the study demonstrates how LSTM-based production forecasts can be converted into policy-relevant import-gap scenarios. From a policy perspective, the findings support integrated drought-risk management through water productivity improvement, strategic grain reserves, and forward import planning. https://www.oajre.ir/article_245600_ad027c454a6ff9ba5726a4f7afd35a2e.pdf