Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sara Halajiyan
Author-Name-First: Sara
Author-Name-Last: Halajiyan
Author-Email: saraa.halajiyan@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Msc. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran
Author-Name: Foad Eshghi
Author-Name-First: Foad
Author-Name-Last: Eshghi
Author-Email: fesh.foad@gmail.com
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran.
Author-Name: Seyed Mojtaba Mojaverian
Author-Name-First: Seyed Mojtaba
Author-Name-Last: Mojaverian
Author-Email: mmojaverian@yahoo.com
Author-Workplace-Name: professor, Agricultural Economics Department of Sari University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran
Title: Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Poultry Meat Prices: A Time Series Analysis
Abstract: Fluctuations in the price of imported inputs cause sharp changes in chicken meat prices, harming society's welfare, especially for low-income groups that mainly buy food. Increased food insecurity and malnutrition have tragic consequences, particularly for children, the elderly, and other vulnerable members of society. The purpose of this study is to examine the symmetry of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on chicken meat prices. For this purpose, time series data in daily frequency from March 21, 2018, to March 20, 2022, and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) models were used. The results of estimating the model with NARDL showed that the variables of the daily price of chicken meat with one lag, daily price of chicken meat with four lags, and exchange rate fluctuations with two lags have a direct relationship with the price of chicken meat, and the variable of daily price of chicken meat with two lags has an inverse relationship with the price of chicken meat. The results of estimating the error correction coefficient showed that, in each period (day), approximately 0.96 percent of the imbalance in the daily price of chicken meat was adjusted. Similarly, research findings indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects on the price of chicken meat. In this regard, to maintain household food security, support policies should be used in the short term to prevent a decrease in economic access to food.
Classification-JEL: JEL
Keywords: Asymmetric; Nonlinear Autoregressive Distribution Lag; Daily data; Dollar; Generalized Autoregressive model
Journal: International Journal of Resistive Economics
Pages: 14-28
Volume: 12
Issue: 3
Year: 2024
Month: July
DOI: 10.22034/oajre.2025.497723.1101
File-URL: https://www.oajre.ir/article_218445_6455419fa5caffa3912740c9f82ba57a.pdf
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File-URL: https://www.oajre.ir/article_218445.html
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Handle: RePEc:trd:journl:218445