Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zahra Khalaj Hedayati
Author-Name-First: Zahra
Author-Name-Last: Khalaj Hedayati
Author-Email: zahra.kh.hedayati@ut.ac.ir
Author-Workplace-Name: PhD student, Financial Economics, Aras Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
Author-Name: Mohsen Mehrara
Author-Name-First: Mohsen
Author-Name-Last: Mehrara
Author-Email: mmehrara@ut.ac.ir
Author-Workplace-Name: Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Title: Analyzing the Impact of Cryptocurrencies on the Economies of Sanctioned Countries, with a Focus on Iran
Abstract: For decades, Iran's economy has confronted extensive challenges stemming from international economic sanctions, which have severely restricted access to global financial systems and impeded foreign trade facilitation. Under these circumstances, cryptocurrencies have emerged as a potential instrument to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions. This study adopts a mixed-methods approach to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the impact of cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) on Iran’s economy within the context of dynamic economic sanctions. Econometric modeling results indicate that cryptocurrencies and DeFi have exerted a statistically significant positive effect on the volume of Iran's foreign trade and, in the long run, have demonstrated moderating effects on exchange rates and inflation. Moreover, findings from the ABM+ML (Agent-Based Modeling combined with Machine Learning) simulations corroborate the potential of these technologies to reduce cross-border transaction costs and attract capital as a hedge against inflation, while simultaneously highlighting their high volatility and systemic risks—particularly in the absence of a robust legal framework. Key insights from expert interviews further confirm the critical role of cryptocurrencies and DeFi in facilitating foreign trade under sanctions, yet emphasize the lack of a transparent regulatory framework, security vulnerabilities, and extreme price volatility as major impediments. This research concludes that cryptocurrencies and DeFi represent a dual-edged instrument for Iran’s economy under sanctions: on one hand, they offer opportunities to facilitate trade and counteract sanction-induced constraints; on the other, they introduce significant systemic and regulatory challenges.
Classification-JEL: JEL
Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Decentralized Finance (DeFi); Dynamic Economic Sanctions; Iranian Economy; Foreign Trade
Journal: International Journal of Resistive Economics
Pages: 49-74
Volume: 13
Issue: 2
Year: 2025
Month: May
DOI: 10.22034/oajre.2025.559897.1165
File-URL: https://www.oajre.ir/article_234519_f72bf73bfbe083ce5c9b3b3fc7bd5646.pdf
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File-URL: https://www.oajre.ir/article_234519.html
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Handle: RePEc:trd:journl:234519